Ethiopia at Threat: The “Islamic State” Insurgent Movement Reaches Out to Amharic Speakers – Professor Glen Segell

Ethiopia at Threat: The “Islamic State” Insurgent Movement Reaches Out to Amharic Speakers

by Glen Segell

Volume 11 (2023), Number 1 (January 2023)

© Copyright Glen Segell 2023

Introduction

The Islamic State also known as Daesh and frequently abbreviated as ISIS has become a global movement [1]. It is evident on all continents and like Sunni Al–Qaeda or Shia Hezbollah, it has also reared its head in Africa. It is actively raging insurgencies from the Mali region in West Africa across to its origins in Iraq/Syria.

ISIS like Al–Qaeda is a grassroots bottom-up franchise without direct control unlike Hezbollah that is a top-down movement orchestrated by Tehran. This doesn’t distract from modus operandi where all three movements have local and dispersed militant forces that are supported by a worldwide constellation of pro-social media outlets by individual sympathizers who help shape, amplify, and disseminate narratives to support the greater cause.

Being global movements has its advantages but also its challenges. For example the causes of all three movements rests on Islam so the social media apparatus produces its propaganda in Arabic. However the further afield from the Middle East they seek to build and maintain support poses the challenge of a vast target audience comprised of speakers of many different languages. For example in Africa, the locals speak hundreds of languages as well as some having a second language of English, French or Portuguese resonating from the European colonial era.[2]

The Reach Out to Amharic Speakers

Islamic Fundamentalism including the ISIS exists in the Horn of Africa and that is mainly Somalia, Eritrea, and Ethiopia.[3] ISIS first become overtly evident as being active there in 2015. Its origins are Abdul Qadir Mu’min, a veteran jihadist leader and former senior cleric for the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia known as Al-Shabaab. He broke away from the group and subsequently pledged allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and ISIS in October 2015. The ISIS leadership in Iraq/Syria recognized this East Africa Cell as an official province of the “Islamic State Caliphate” in December 2017.[4]

Immediately there were signs of ISIS’s intention to increase support locally and in late December 2017 an ISIS-Somalia short 2 minute video featured a jihadist from Ethiopia speaking the Amharic language.[5] By July 2019, pro-ISIS social media world-wide had content in Amharic. There may well be over 25 million people who speak the language; they are mostly located in the Horn of Africa with smaller diaspora communities scattered globally.[6]

Yet it was in the last half of 2022 that this propaganda intensified. The Somalia ISIS Cell released a significant media production featuring the use of the Amharic language. Its content was the first explicit and meaningful gesture from the local ISIS directly acknowledging Amharic speakers’ contribution to the movement.[7]

The 26-minute-long video, “In the footsteps of the conquerors”, is in Amharic with Arabic subtitles. The video is shot in high quality and shows operations, training, and the daily life of its fighters, featuring Ethiopians among its ranks. The video shows Ethiopian recruits training and taking courses in absolute monotheism (tawhid), jurisprudence (fiqh), and the laws of government (Siyyasa al-Shar’iyya).[8]

It would be prudent to assume that this is a deliberate appeal to Ethiopians, Somalians, and Eritreans who speak the Amharic language to join the ISIS cause and be more active and proactive. This is a clear indication that ISIS is seeking an opportunity for increasing recruitment, fundraising, and building support in the Amharic speaking world.

The Amharic Propaganda Sphere

Following the 26-minute-long video, over the last six months of 2022, a sizable pro-ISIS Amharic media and communications ecosystem has emerged.  By December 2022 it consisted of Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, WhatsApp, Telegram and Twitter networks comprised of several key propaganda production modes, leading ideologues, and interactive discussion channels. The same messages in Amharic are also evident on websites and online archives.

The messages are amplified by local and regional radio stations that also broadcast over the Internet such as the Voice of Munasir Radio, Fatwa Media, and Fatwa Amharic. The Voice of Munasir Radio is the most active among these and is perhaps the most significant media force in Amharic Cyber Space. The group releases audio content in Amharic and Arabic dealing with theological and religious topics, jurisprudence, weekly news, explanations, and historical events. Sermons, videos, posters, and translated ISIS materials are very evident.

Less prominent is Fatwa Media because it is mainly on Telegram and because it deals on heavier religious and ideological issues. Fatwa Amharic concentrates on translating globally available ISIS material from Arabic to Amharic which is then shared throughout its networks and across platforms.

With the Internet being a two-way street of communication, the notable component of any online pro-ISIS Amharic networks is the growing web of interactive channels where supporters, ISIS members, ideologues and leaders discuss current affairs, religious topics, ISIS-related insurgencies around the world, and ultimately contribute to the movement’s cause through discourse development and personal input.

A notable feature of the significance of this ISIS-related material in Amharic was the decision of the I’lam Foundation to archive as much as possible. The I’lam – Arab Center for Media Freedom, Development and Research was founded in 2000 by a group of Palestinian intellectuals and journalists active in the fields of civil society, media, and research.

The Future and Threats to Ethiopia

Sunni ISIS like Sunni Al–Qaeda or Shia Hezbollah is always looking to expand its reach and tap into new pools of potential supporters. The growing Amharic networks are indicative of a burgeoning competition in the online ecosystem for supporters for these movements.

This has real-world impact and may pose some level of threat to Ethiopia where most Amharic speakers live. The consequences and the future because of such cyber competition may well see a physical confrontation. There may be a move from the cyber sphere to the Street. Amharic speaking Ethiopia may be the new battlefield between Sunni and Shia insurgent movements.

The central, regional, and local levels of government of Ethiopia are aware of this threat as their governance is a primary target for such insurgent movements. Addis Ababa has released statements detailing a series of raids and disrupted plots involving ISIS members in the country. For example in 2017, 26 suspected jihadists were arrested in an operation against an Ethiopian ISIS network. By the end of July 2018, ISIS had claimed responsibility for around 65 attacks in Somalia and the region.[9] In 2019, the Ethiopian army captured ISIS militants, and, in 2021, authorities claimed they busted a cell going by the name “Islamic State Center”.[10]

If the trend continues and if ISIS intensifies its Amharic language propaganda efforts, then Ethiopia and indeed the rest of the Horn of Africa and East Africa will be at threat. As the pattern has evidenced in the Middle East from such a trend of Cyber Islamic Fundamentalism then ISIS will increase its efforts to appeal for recruitment, fundraising, and encouraging violent attacks.

There is a clear and present risk of elements within the thriving Amharic online ecosystem to answer such calls to physical violence. This will lead both to competition and conflict with other insurgent movements and a rise in anti-government activities and confrontations. The victim as always will be the man in the Street; most of the population who are innocent bystanders not wishing such propaganda or violence.

References

[1] Daniel Byman, Al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and the Global Jihadist Movement, Oxford University Press, 2021

[2] W. E. Welmers, African Language Structures, University of California Press, 2018

[3] Meysam Mirzaei Tabar, “Geopolitics and the Roots of Islamic Fundamentalism,” Geopolitics Quarterly, Volume: 17, No 4, Winter 2022, 53-74

[4] Anthony Tucker-Jones, Daesh: Islamic State’s Holy War‏, Pen & Sword Military, 2018

[5] Data gathered by the Author during Research

[6] Language Learning – Amharic, https://library.bu.edu/amharic

[7] Data gathered by the Author during Research

[8] For example and made available by ISIS on Facebook but removed by Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/ethioandenetcome/photos/a.116288213437547/229231815476519/?type=3

[9] European Institute of Peace, The Islamic State in East Africa, September 2018, https://www.eip.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Report_IS-in-East-Africa_October-2018-3.pdf

[10] “Islamic State Centre” extremist groups arrested in Bale,” Borkena, 31 January 2021

“Islamic State Centre” extremist groups arrested in Bale

Glen Segell (DPhil, FRGS) is Professor at the University of Cambridge, and Visiting Professor and Research Fellow in the Department of Political Studies and Governance at the University of the Free State, South Africa. He is also Research Fellow at the Ezri Center for Iran & Gulf Studies, University of Haifa, Israel, and Editor of The Middle East Tracker and The London Security Policy Study. He serves as an Executive Advisory Board Member of the International Political Studies Association Research Committee on Armed Forces and Society. He holds the rank of Brigadier-General (Reserves) and is an expert for NATO STO.